Somewhere.. Across the Ocean. Australia - What Now?

 

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It seems the US is purposely working to isolate Australia from all its possible trade partners to keep it in American orbit. First starting an unnecessary war of words with China. Next angering France just before a free trade agreement with the EU is to be finalized.

Let’s find out – if Germany supports the delay of the free trade agreement – then perhaps that’s what the Americans want – if not then I am wrong and it’s just France whingeing about the lost billions.

America is trying to weaken the EU by encouraging the small EU members to disobey the powerful German and French masters in Brussels, but do not have the money to that Brussels can afford to spend. On the other hand, Germany seems increasingly less keen to finance Eastern ‘dissidents’ like Poland and Hungary.

Now Australia participates into two military arrangements against it's main business partner - China. Both are with America - one with Britain, the other one with Japan and India. How that will affect all of us remains a mystery.

North Korea - What Now?

What will happen in North Korea?

The regime seems far less stable than the Arab dictatorships or even the USSR by the end of the 80s.
For there is no doubt that North Korean regime will collapse most probably sooner than later and in any case not later than the end of this decade if not in the first half of it.
The problem is how the world or the major interests involved will deal with it. If there are any particular plans they don't seem to be public if they exist at all so I will feel free to speculate.
Questions to be answered:

First, what could happen?
Second, who are the major players and what are their interests?
Third, what can they do to promote them or what can be expected that they may do?

Possible answers to the first question – possible developments :

1. Russian scenario. A Gorbachev style move towards reforms starts well but ends in Yeltsin type chaos of crime and corruption until the Putin type strongman regulates corruption in favor of his clique and puts the losers in jail
2. Chinese scenario. Deng Xiaoping style reforms lead to improved living standards while preserving the rule of the communist party and postponing the inevitable collapse.
3. East German scenario. South Korea absorbs North Korea and the North Korean communist elite melts into obscurity.

Additional questions stemming from the proposed answers to the first question:

• Which is the preferred scenario?
• Which is the most probable one?
• Which is the most dangerous?

Answer to the second question – major stakeholders :

1. The people of North Korea – interested in survival, development, democracy and opportunities
2. The communist elite of North Korea – interested in preserving their privileges
3. South Korea – interest in dealing with the military threat from the North and reunification.
4. China – interested in stability in Korea to prevent destabilization of its regions bordering Korea.
5. Japan – interested in removing the threat from North Korea and a host of problems.
6. USA – a peaceful Korea will reduce the need for US military presence but open opportunities for trade.
7. Russia – has shown remarkable indifference for a country so close and the importance accorded by the government to the development of the Russian Pacific region so close to North Korea.

So far all stakeholders (with the notable exception of the sovereign – the people of North Korea) have pledged to work with the elite in North Korea to facilitate a smooth transition. Russia has warned against “provocations” by North Korean neighbors probably meaning that the Russian government won't tolerate a repeat of the Libyan scenario.
That may be the most sensible foreign policy in response to the contingency of the moment but what should the main stakeholders do to secure the promotion of there strategic interests in the future?
And what those interest may be? (I am aware that the concise list provided here is far from complete and may be even off the mark.)