Let’s Sing the Ukrainian Song Right

Merkel 1, Putin 0, Obama -1.

The current score of the dirty chess game started by Merkel is as above. I’ll explain;

She starts with a half-hearted offer for EU negotiations that is easy to reject. It’s understandable - Ukraine is a big country with big issues and Germany is reluctant to pay for it. In jumps Putin like a knight in shining armour (or more likely - half naked) with bags of resque money to reward his now rejected friend Yanukovych - the brave president of Ukraine elected by the people. But the people it seems don’t want Yanukovych and they don’t want Putin’s money (and they are aware he is half naked) - they would rather prefer the shiny EU with difficult conditions and no money hoping mostly to rush to Germany and make some easy Euros perhaps because any economic development is difficult to imagine in an EU where only Germany is booming and the rest are stagnating (especially the new and poor members). Bam - Yanukovych is gone (even Putin doesn't love him anymore) and the mob establishes a pro EU government by making sure the parliament votes as they prefer. Also they are quick to ignite ethnic tensions by banning the Russian language historically spoken by a big part Ukrainian citizens an act guaranteed to ingnite anger and indignation.

At this moment the score is Merkel: 1 and Putin: - 1. Merica is just zero for now waiting for an opportunity to open, Putin counter attacks ostensibly “to protect” compatriots in Crimea but mostly to get back at Merkel for making him look dumb. But Merkel keeps her cool - instead Obama jumps into the fray to see if he can catch some easy fish in these troubled waters but only exposes his irrelevance. After having wasted any influence and good will he may have had by not attending the Olympics he has no options but to talk pointedly while no one hardly listens. That is a minus 1 and plus 1 for Putin to equal zero.

But where are the interests of the people of Ukraine in this whole game you may ask? Sadly no one seems to care! Even the new rulers in Kiev seem to be more interested in distributing government posts that will enable them to profit at the back of the people of Ukraine, the US taxpayer, the people of Russia and even the EU taxpayers if they are not vigilant.

I know what you are thinking - this is a useless sad story without a happy ending and no inspiring moral. There is moral: we the people have the power to keep the corrupt scheming rulers accountable. The people of Ukraine - Ukrainians, Russians, Tatars, Jews, Moldovans, Gypsies have to unite against the demagogues - not because it is a good thing to do but because the other option is slavery under the boot of Russia, the EU, the IMF too but first and foremost under their own homegrown corrupt oligarchs and politicians.

The price of gas goes up? Guess who will profit!

Epilogue

In a warm August evening in 1978 I was walking along the seaside of the Bulgarian resort of Primorsko with a couple of friends when we met a large group of Russians who invited us to join them. Soon after that we met a similarly large group of Polish holidaymakers and sat all together around a table in the park. The Russians brought a couple of bottles of Stolichnaya vodka and after some rounds offered to sing a Russian song. The moment they started there was trouble: “This is not a Russian song,” the Polish guys objected. “It is a Polish song!” The proceeded to agree the sing the song only if the Russians agree it is in fact a Polish song. Tempers flared  - fueled by the Stolichnaya. The on of the Russians shouted above all: “It’s actually an Ukrainian song! Let’s sing the Ukrainian song!” For reasons incomprehensible to me but apparently obvious to the Russians - the Polish agreed and we all sang together the Ukrainian song. All of us Bulgarians, Russians and Polish - there wasn't a single Ukrainian present.

So it looks like we (as we the people, we the humanity, we the nations) can do it. We an sing the Ukrainian song and sing it good and not out of tune if we want to. If we don’t we will be enslaved and no one can save us.

There is no gate to the way but many roads lead to it.

Can a government burden future generations with debt they haven't had a chance to agree to.

Definitely not! That is against the principle of no taxation without representation.

But what if the money is spent to keep the parents of these future kids alive?

What is good and what is bad we might be able to tell but how to measure it? Does the greatest good for the most people maxim work? The experience of Hitler and Stalin's persecution of minorities under the false pretext of common good tells us enough to be able to judge. Most important, ignoring the fate of unrelated minorities will lead inevitably to the time when they will come for me and then there will be no one left to protest.

While the Tea Party religiously is carrying the future generations to the mountain to sacrifice them to an imagined principle of decency Obama is trying to do the intuitively correct thing and borrow a sacrificial lamb from the neighbors although he doesn't seem to have a very clear idea how he is going to pay for it.

Who is right? Burden the future with debt or kill the present in the name of the principle even if the principle is in itself correct – even sacred? There is no one correct answer. Perhaps we need to keep in mind that the Sabath was created for the people not the people for the Sabath. But then again the unity of diversity makes the nation and even if the people can be enslaved a proud nation – never.

Thoughts by Cicero, Jesus, Buddha and from the Old Testament were paraphrased in this post.

Henry Kissinger sent to Russia by Obama: what to expect?

If Henry Kissinger is up to some secret negotiations dramatic results are bound to follow. Usually good for the US and the rest of the world: like the end of the Vietnam war, transforming China from worst enemy to best trading partner, and ending hostilities between Israel and Egypt. What can we expect now?
Russia has been steadily antagonised by withholding their WTO membership for no valid reasons, promoting NATO expansion while Russia is not invited they have no choice but regard NATO as a hostile organisation, prod neighbours like Georgia to physically attack Russian soldiers. Not the best trust building policies. But what should be done?
I think the best approach will be to hug the bear so hard it will find it hard not to respond. Let me explain:
1. That's the approach the US used successfully in post-war Germany and Japan, that was the approach used successfully by the brilliant Nixon-Kissinger team towards communist China. (I wonder how the US would have managed in a world where the worlds most powerful economies were hostile).
2. The mindless foreign policy of the Bush administration has successfully alienated the US from most of the civilized world and has left the current administration with almost no alternative than try and repair the eroded trust (which ultimately may be a good thing: nothing wrong with consistently positive foreign policy for a change).
3. Siemens (from Germany) is developing nuclear cooperation with Russia, Areva (from France) with China, Iran is sending a satellite in space with Russian help and Russo-Chinese and Russo-Indian military cooperation (not without their own problems) is developing. It looks like Joe Biden is on his way to start repairing the damage done by the Bush administration in alienating the Europeans. The alternative will be an undesirable anti-American Euro-Russo alliance (or even worse Euro-Russo-Chinese or Indian alliance. Unlikely because of the the importance of the US for these countries that will neutralize their interest in anti US arrangements. Possible US protectionism though could make that option more viable.

That's why I think Afghanistan is the smallest American foreign policy problem. I regret to be cynical but who cares about that illiterate mountain people and a bunch of smelly Taliban with flea infested beards. No one! Just cut of their sources of international currency and they will literally have no money to travel abroad to cause trouble. (If you really care about the Afghan people think about how to offer them better livelihood than growing poppies for the Taliban instead of how to send more troops that might be cheaper and more effective).

So I suggest:
1. Get Russia into the WTO, NATO and the EU which will lead to better transparency and trust. Keeping them out gives the government the excuse to brake international norms.
2. Get the Russian army into Afghanistan (if they are to share the fruits of democracy they should share the responsibilities too).
3. Increase academic exchange between the two countries for two reasons:
a) that may actually benefit the US in the flow of technology and b) that will increase understanding and good will between the two countries and make it more difficult for the ruling elites to resort to war mongering and scare tactics.
c)send government funded consultants to help improve Russian economy (no one want's to fight on a full belly:)