At first glance it looks like a win/win/win situation - the US will pay 2 billion USD for gas delivered to Ukraine so the flow to Germany won't stop. Germany gets gas, Putin gets money for being a good boy and the US taxpayer ends up deeper in debt.
But wait there is more - Putin gets to keep the 12 billion he promised Ukraine before the disturbances started, the US taxpayers' 2 billion is in the form of loan guarantee (be realistic Ukraine is not going to pay it back in any foreseeable future) and the actual money will go through the IMF they can impose their fees and sanctions at will.
Winners - the oligarchs and oil barons of Russia, the USA and Ukraine.
Losers - we the people, but mostly the people of Ukraine (who we be deeply enslaved), Russia (whose corrupt leaders will become richer and more arrogant) and last but not least the people of the USA who will end up picking up the tab for all this.
Amazing what a couple of well placed snipers shooting at protesters can achieve.
Showing posts with label Putin. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Putin. Show all posts
Thursday, March 06, 2014
Tuesday, March 04, 2014
Let’s Sing the Ukrainian Song Right
Merkel 1, Putin 0, Obama -1.
The current score of the dirty chess game started by Merkel is as above. I’ll explain;
She starts with a half-hearted offer for EU negotiations that is easy to reject. It’s understandable - Ukraine is a big country with big issues and Germany is reluctant to pay for it. In jumps Putin like a knight in shining armour (or more likely - half naked) with bags of resque money to reward his now rejected friend Yanukovych - the brave president of Ukraine elected by the people. But the people it seems don’t want Yanukovych and they don’t want Putin’s money (and they are aware he is half naked) - they would rather prefer the shiny EU with difficult conditions and no money hoping mostly to rush to Germany and make some easy Euros perhaps because any economic development is difficult to imagine in an EU where only Germany is booming and the rest are stagnating (especially the new and poor members). Bam - Yanukovych is gone (even Putin doesn't love him anymore) and the mob establishes a pro EU government by making sure the parliament votes as they prefer. Also they are quick to ignite ethnic tensions by banning the Russian language historically spoken by a big part Ukrainian citizens an act guaranteed to ingnite anger and indignation.
At this moment the score is Merkel: 1 and Putin: - 1. Merica is just zero for now waiting for an opportunity to open, Putin counter attacks ostensibly “to protect” compatriots in Crimea but mostly to get back at Merkel for making him look dumb. But Merkel keeps her cool - instead Obama jumps into the fray to see if he can catch some easy fish in these troubled waters but only exposes his irrelevance. After having wasted any influence and good will he may have had by not attending the Olympics he has no options but to talk pointedly while no one hardly listens. That is a minus 1 and plus 1 for Putin to equal zero.
But where are the interests of the people of Ukraine in this whole game you may ask? Sadly no one seems to care! Even the new rulers in Kiev seem to be more interested in distributing government posts that will enable them to profit at the back of the people of Ukraine, the US taxpayer, the people of Russia and even the EU taxpayers if they are not vigilant.
I know what you are thinking - this is a useless sad story without a happy ending and no inspiring moral. There is moral: we the people have the power to keep the corrupt scheming rulers accountable. The people of Ukraine - Ukrainians, Russians, Tatars, Jews, Moldovans, Gypsies have to unite against the demagogues - not because it is a good thing to do but because the other option is slavery under the boot of Russia, the EU, the IMF too but first and foremost under their own homegrown corrupt oligarchs and politicians.
The price of gas goes up? Guess who will profit!
Epilogue
In a warm August evening in 1978 I was walking along the seaside of the Bulgarian resort of Primorsko with a couple of friends when we met a large group of Russians who invited us to join them. Soon after that we met a similarly large group of Polish holidaymakers and sat all together around a table in the park. The Russians brought a couple of bottles of Stolichnaya vodka and after some rounds offered to sing a Russian song. The moment they started there was trouble: “This is not a Russian song,” the Polish guys objected. “It is a Polish song!” The proceeded to agree the sing the song only if the Russians agree it is in fact a Polish song. Tempers flared - fueled by the Stolichnaya. The on of the Russians shouted above all: “It’s actually an Ukrainian song! Let’s sing the Ukrainian song!” For reasons incomprehensible to me but apparently obvious to the Russians - the Polish agreed and we all sang together the Ukrainian song. All of us Bulgarians, Russians and Polish - there wasn't a single Ukrainian present.
So it looks like we (as we the people, we the humanity, we the nations) can do it. We an sing the Ukrainian song and sing it good and not out of tune if we want to. If we don’t we will be enslaved and no one can save us.
Saturday, December 17, 2011
Russian Spring and US National Interest
One night the Khalif Harum al Rashid summoned his vizier Jafar and said to him: “I wish to go into the city to find out what is happening and to question the people about the conduct of my administrators so that I may dismiss those who they complain of and promote those they praise...”
from the Tale of Three Apples not Newton's, Beatles' and Steve Jobs' but the one from The Thousand and One Nights
The Khalif in Moscow seems to have forgotten that he has to check what people think of his administrators and confident in his popularity after ruling uncontested for over 12 years was unpleasantly surprised by his party's loss of more than 20 per cent of their seats in the Russian parliament regardless of the intimidation of his opponents and his control over the media (perhaps that was caused in part by the 20 per cent increase of internet penetration among the highly literate Russian population). Even worse he seems failing to acknowledge that the people have genuine concerns and dismisses the protesters in true Leninist style as paid by the West. To top it up US Secretary of State Hilary Clinton expressed her concern with the rigged elections, prompting Mr Putin to retaliate that she was instigating the protests which is hardly try. Try spending several hours outside in the Russian winter. No matter how big a fan of Mrs Clinton you may be that thought won't be enough to keep you warm. Just how shaky Putin's position is at the moment can be discerned by his nervousness and lack of confidence (this is the man who rides his horse half-naked even when Sarah Palin is not watching from Alaska) but making the allusion that the white ribbons used by the protesters look like condoms is pretty low (and exposes ignorance that condoms may come in different colors). Gorbachev too (hardly a political competitor anymore) incurred the wrath of Putin by calling for a rerun of the elections.
Having said all that most of the protesters have spent most of their creative lives under the relatively secure, stable and prosperous rule of Putin and his political allies especially if compared with the chaotic Yeltsin regime. Those are the less flamboyant KGB guys (the more extravagant ones are in London dazzling the UK public with extreme wealth obtain though unthinkable corruption) and they may continue to rule Russia for quite some time with or without Putin mostly because they are unlikely to give up their positions without a fight. On the other hand the protestors are not the workers, soldiers and sailors of the October Revolution from the previous century. They are mostly middle class people who are looking for a government that can provide for more opportunities for development and innovation besides selling oil and gas to the West and China.
And that is where the interests of the people standing in the cold in Russia coincide with US national interest. A more democratic Russia where innovation and development will create more markets for US products and more products for US markets can only benefit the US middle class.
In that line of thought it was lucky timing that Russia was accepted as a member of the WTO just when it needs a boost. US – Russia relations cannot be fully covered by the philosophy of a “reset”. They need much more creative thinking to build a whole new system of interdependence and cooperation that will not only boost domestic economies but help create the conditions for stability and prosperity across Eurasia where pockets of volatile conflicts and regional animosities threaten to blow out of proportions, not to mention the imminent collapse of Chinese communism with yet unknown and unpredictable consequences.
The most precious legacy of the G.W. Bush era is the expensive lesson that the US cannot and should not act alone attempting to resolve international issues no matter how well-intentioned and powerful it may feel. It is debilitatingly expensive and the results are at best inconclusive if not disastrous.
The cheapest and most effective way to promote US national interest globally (and in space) is through cooperation – Marshal Plan style, or Kissinger's policy towards China style or International Space Station style. That is not confined to US international experience. Post WWII French policy to entangle Germany in an EU, (I remember it was originally an US idea) but it only became successful after France started pursuing it with religious fervor, and has managed to forge fascinating unity on the Old Continent torn by the most devastating wars in human history less than a century ago, and that united continent is one of the most reliable US trade partners and military allies.
Russia has moved a long way since the stagnation of the Brezhnev era. It is not perfect but it is moving slowly forward. It's in our interest to support that movement.
… the great thing in this world is not so much where we stand as in what direction we are moving: To reach the port of heaven, we must sail sometimes with the wind and sometimes against it— but we must sail, and not drift, nor lie at anchor...
--- Oliver Wendell Holmes, Sr.
from the Tale of Three Apples not Newton's, Beatles' and Steve Jobs' but the one from The Thousand and One Nights
The Khalif in Moscow seems to have forgotten that he has to check what people think of his administrators and confident in his popularity after ruling uncontested for over 12 years was unpleasantly surprised by his party's loss of more than 20 per cent of their seats in the Russian parliament regardless of the intimidation of his opponents and his control over the media (perhaps that was caused in part by the 20 per cent increase of internet penetration among the highly literate Russian population). Even worse he seems failing to acknowledge that the people have genuine concerns and dismisses the protesters in true Leninist style as paid by the West. To top it up US Secretary of State Hilary Clinton expressed her concern with the rigged elections, prompting Mr Putin to retaliate that she was instigating the protests which is hardly try. Try spending several hours outside in the Russian winter. No matter how big a fan of Mrs Clinton you may be that thought won't be enough to keep you warm. Just how shaky Putin's position is at the moment can be discerned by his nervousness and lack of confidence (this is the man who rides his horse half-naked even when Sarah Palin is not watching from Alaska) but making the allusion that the white ribbons used by the protesters look like condoms is pretty low (and exposes ignorance that condoms may come in different colors). Gorbachev too (hardly a political competitor anymore) incurred the wrath of Putin by calling for a rerun of the elections.
Having said all that most of the protesters have spent most of their creative lives under the relatively secure, stable and prosperous rule of Putin and his political allies especially if compared with the chaotic Yeltsin regime. Those are the less flamboyant KGB guys (the more extravagant ones are in London dazzling the UK public with extreme wealth obtain though unthinkable corruption) and they may continue to rule Russia for quite some time with or without Putin mostly because they are unlikely to give up their positions without a fight. On the other hand the protestors are not the workers, soldiers and sailors of the October Revolution from the previous century. They are mostly middle class people who are looking for a government that can provide for more opportunities for development and innovation besides selling oil and gas to the West and China.
And that is where the interests of the people standing in the cold in Russia coincide with US national interest. A more democratic Russia where innovation and development will create more markets for US products and more products for US markets can only benefit the US middle class.
In that line of thought it was lucky timing that Russia was accepted as a member of the WTO just when it needs a boost. US – Russia relations cannot be fully covered by the philosophy of a “reset”. They need much more creative thinking to build a whole new system of interdependence and cooperation that will not only boost domestic economies but help create the conditions for stability and prosperity across Eurasia where pockets of volatile conflicts and regional animosities threaten to blow out of proportions, not to mention the imminent collapse of Chinese communism with yet unknown and unpredictable consequences.
The most precious legacy of the G.W. Bush era is the expensive lesson that the US cannot and should not act alone attempting to resolve international issues no matter how well-intentioned and powerful it may feel. It is debilitatingly expensive and the results are at best inconclusive if not disastrous.
The cheapest and most effective way to promote US national interest globally (and in space) is through cooperation – Marshal Plan style, or Kissinger's policy towards China style or International Space Station style. That is not confined to US international experience. Post WWII French policy to entangle Germany in an EU, (I remember it was originally an US idea) but it only became successful after France started pursuing it with religious fervor, and has managed to forge fascinating unity on the Old Continent torn by the most devastating wars in human history less than a century ago, and that united continent is one of the most reliable US trade partners and military allies.
Russia has moved a long way since the stagnation of the Brezhnev era. It is not perfect but it is moving slowly forward. It's in our interest to support that movement.
… the great thing in this world is not so much where we stand as in what direction we are moving: To reach the port of heaven, we must sail sometimes with the wind and sometimes against it— but we must sail, and not drift, nor lie at anchor...
--- Oliver Wendell Holmes, Sr.
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