Iraq the problems is not security but lack of democracy. And democracy is not about elections but about economically and politically independent middle class which is lacking in Iraq. We have corrupt government that supports corruption in politics and the economy and is widely perceived by the United State and it is. Until that changes no amount of military involvement will make any difference. The only way to turn things around is if US projects in Iraq are open for competition including international. That will bring more transparency and lead to better efficiency and effectiveness of US involvement in Iraqi economy, bring in willing Europeans, Chinese, Russians and possibly Indians, lead to Iraqi economic revival and ultimately discredit militants.
The same is valid for Pakistan and Afghanistan.. At present poor tribal villagers have no choice but to succumb to Taliban and Al-Quaeda bullying and grow opium for them for lack of other productive opportunities. For sure militants can be defeated only by armed force but that alone have proven unsuccessful in the long run. Depriving the armed groups of their financial and popular support is the key to defeating them. Military action will be the last not the primary concern.
Europe is in very precarious position and that has unique possibilities for development. Eastern Europe is in serious trouble and Western Europe seems reluctant to help. The US can promote its own agenda through economic help which could be financial but more important intellectual in the sphere of management while utilizing local engineering talent. The same applies to Russia. Pushing NATO agenda is a lose – lose situation. For Eastern Europeans (Czechs for example) the attempt to build a US missile base on their territory is just another attempt to bring foreign troops on Czech soil just when they got rid of the Russians. Other Eastern European nations will interpret it just the same. Membership in the Russia led Warsaw pact was cemented with cheap Russian oil and gas. I doubt the US is prepared to pay for such questionable loyalty. Yet the Obama administration has the unique chance of forging an independent of Western Europe policy towards Eastern Europe based on economic (not military) cooperation and win the loyalty of the people of Eastern Europe who are tired of being exploited as cheap labor and environmental dump of Western Europe not to mention Russian bullying.
Putin’s Russia is at a crossroads. It will be unwise to antagonize them in these difficult times, There are many converging interests where both countries can work together for shared benefit. Let’s not forget that détente led to perestroika and ultimately to the dismantling of the oppressive Soviet Union and its system of international domination while more than forty years of isolation did nothing to change the regime in Cuba. There is no use lamenting the plight of Russian “businessmen’ bullied by their government as most of them are common crooks owing their riches to the lawlessness of the Yeltsin era, on the other hand murdering journalists and letting the assassins walk free is a crime against freedom of speech not to be condoned..
I believe it will be beneficial if the Obama administration leans a bit harder on China not only on human rights but on North Korea too. I know keeping the criminal regime their alive is in the interests of those who favor US military presence in South Korea but its not sustainable in the long run and ultimately detrimental to US interests and the interests of the people in the region. So North Korea must go and the signal must come from the White House.
Israel? The Israelis are among the most intelligent people in the world. I am sure they just wait for the sign of where the prevailing winds will blow. But the sign must be consistent enough I don’t think there is an easy solution. A federation of Jews and Arabs seems like a good idea but may be impossible to implement. In any case more than sixty years of realpolitik in the region didn’t lead to anything good. It is time for innovative solutions taking into account not the interests and preferences of corrupt governments and shady terrorist organizations but the real world interests of the people in the region regardless of their religions, national or political affiliation..
The same is valid for Latin Americans who have yet to see an United States administration treating them with respect as people regardless of the corrupt governments, corporate interests and mafia connections.
I believe it is self evident that any American administration should conduct its foreign policy based on the premise that we are all created equal and endowed with certain inalienable rights.
Saturday, February 28, 2009
Identity? National, religious, other? How do you feel about it?
I think identity is a thing of the past. I'm more interested in who (not what) a person is. But many people cling to and find illusionary security in some imagined national, religious, racial, class, caste or neighborhood belonging.
We only belong to ourselves. Anything else is from the devil used for exploitation by unethical personalities.
It's only individual identity that matters and that one is particularly hard to define. Maybe that's why many people prefer to adopt a ready made prefabricated one.
Still it can be impossibly difficult to try to understand the world in its complexity and sophistication all by oneself. We need to believe in something, take some knowledge for granted unable to check it ourselves and that's when group knowledge seems reasonably believable and one is prepared to accept the opinion of priests, scientists, politicians or even soothsayers.
Nevertheless I believe sticking to imagined national, religious, or professional identity robs a person from the opportunity to form an independent, objective and balanced opinion that has more chance to be true. Ignoring truth is not only an unwise choice but outright dangerous for the perpetrators and their environment so that's one liberty that we cannot afford. Striving to assert one's individuality is a right and responsibility to oneself and those around.
We only belong to ourselves. Anything else is from the devil used for exploitation by unethical personalities.
It's only individual identity that matters and that one is particularly hard to define. Maybe that's why many people prefer to adopt a ready made prefabricated one.
Still it can be impossibly difficult to try to understand the world in its complexity and sophistication all by oneself. We need to believe in something, take some knowledge for granted unable to check it ourselves and that's when group knowledge seems reasonably believable and one is prepared to accept the opinion of priests, scientists, politicians or even soothsayers.
Nevertheless I believe sticking to imagined national, religious, or professional identity robs a person from the opportunity to form an independent, objective and balanced opinion that has more chance to be true. Ignoring truth is not only an unwise choice but outright dangerous for the perpetrators and their environment so that's one liberty that we cannot afford. Striving to assert one's individuality is a right and responsibility to oneself and those around.
Sunday, February 22, 2009
Expect Great Things Attempt Great Things
William Carey a devoted Christian said that but the power of any true faith is that it is universal. You don’t even have to believe in God to figure out the truth. If this world we exist in is great then we can only expect great things. Attempting great things makes a lot of sense then. Actually not attempting them sounds like pretty silly and going against nature itself. Of course we always have a choice. Albert Einstein figured out that there are only two ways to live your life: one is as though nothing is a miracle;
the other is as though everything is a miracle. The truth is that he is joking. Life is a miracle already and if you choose to ignore it you are an idiot.
We don’t know everything and that’s OK. We make errors and that’s OK too because only those who do nothing make no errors. We are just human. The beauty of our challenge hidden in the urge to strive towards perfection knowing the impossibility to ever achieve it thus making our quest eternal should not lead to frustration but be a source of motivation.
Greatness is how the universe goes about its business so it is just natural for us to take over that law and attempt to use it for our own ends even if they may be mundane and seemingly insignificant. Everything is a miracle and has its place in the glorious harmony of the world even if you choose to ignore it. “How can you see clearly,” asks Mark Twain “if your imagination is out of focus?” You can’t of course. Not only you can’t see clearly if you don’t use imagination and ignore the miracle you will have trouble communicating with others because who will ever believe you if you don’t see the truth and don’t tell them the truth? And who will help you when you need help and who will ask you for help so you can feel needed if we don’t share that truth?
And our most powerful tool for discovering the truth are our dreams, propelled by our imagination, made real though reason. “If you have built castles in the air, your work need not be lost; that is where they should be. Now put the foundations under them.” says Henry David Thoreau and if you haven’t built the castles yet, the miracle of reality must eluding you.
Because: “The future belongs to those who believe in the beauty of their dreams.” as Eleanor Roosevelt observed. And reality is only yesterday’s future.
the other is as though everything is a miracle. The truth is that he is joking. Life is a miracle already and if you choose to ignore it you are an idiot.
We don’t know everything and that’s OK. We make errors and that’s OK too because only those who do nothing make no errors. We are just human. The beauty of our challenge hidden in the urge to strive towards perfection knowing the impossibility to ever achieve it thus making our quest eternal should not lead to frustration but be a source of motivation.
Greatness is how the universe goes about its business so it is just natural for us to take over that law and attempt to use it for our own ends even if they may be mundane and seemingly insignificant. Everything is a miracle and has its place in the glorious harmony of the world even if you choose to ignore it. “How can you see clearly,” asks Mark Twain “if your imagination is out of focus?” You can’t of course. Not only you can’t see clearly if you don’t use imagination and ignore the miracle you will have trouble communicating with others because who will ever believe you if you don’t see the truth and don’t tell them the truth? And who will help you when you need help and who will ask you for help so you can feel needed if we don’t share that truth?
And our most powerful tool for discovering the truth are our dreams, propelled by our imagination, made real though reason. “If you have built castles in the air, your work need not be lost; that is where they should be. Now put the foundations under them.” says Henry David Thoreau and if you haven’t built the castles yet, the miracle of reality must eluding you.
Because: “The future belongs to those who believe in the beauty of their dreams.” as Eleanor Roosevelt observed. And reality is only yesterday’s future.
Sunday, February 15, 2009
To Give and Take: The Art of Love
Or some will say the art of business but love or business it’s so similar because it’s all about human relations and the value we see in them.
I think, if I am not happy with what I give, it will be stupid to expect that I’ll be happy with what I get.
That leads me to the question: What will make me really happy?
It’s obvious something that I want. And even better something that I want a lot. Also probably something that’s not easily obtainable because if bubble gum is going to make me happy that’s easy to get and unlikely to deserve any more attention.
If only it was clear what I really want? The one that is so big, and all important and almost impossible to get? Then I will know what I should do. What steps to take and I will give and give joyfully with love because that will be part of my goal, my life, the most important part of me.
That means that basically I am what I want. It is so easy and so hard.
I think, if I am not happy with what I give, it will be stupid to expect that I’ll be happy with what I get.
That leads me to the question: What will make me really happy?
It’s obvious something that I want. And even better something that I want a lot. Also probably something that’s not easily obtainable because if bubble gum is going to make me happy that’s easy to get and unlikely to deserve any more attention.
If only it was clear what I really want? The one that is so big, and all important and almost impossible to get? Then I will know what I should do. What steps to take and I will give and give joyfully with love because that will be part of my goal, my life, the most important part of me.
That means that basically I am what I want. It is so easy and so hard.
Sunday, February 08, 2009
Henry Kissinger sent to Russia by Obama: what to expect?
If Henry Kissinger is up to some secret negotiations dramatic results are bound to follow. Usually good for the US and the rest of the world: like the end of the Vietnam war, transforming China from worst enemy to best trading partner, and ending hostilities between Israel and Egypt. What can we expect now?
Russia has been steadily antagonised by withholding their WTO membership for no valid reasons, promoting NATO expansion while Russia is not invited they have no choice but regard NATO as a hostile organisation, prod neighbours like Georgia to physically attack Russian soldiers. Not the best trust building policies. But what should be done?
I think the best approach will be to hug the bear so hard it will find it hard not to respond. Let me explain:
1. That's the approach the US used successfully in post-war Germany and Japan, that was the approach used successfully by the brilliant Nixon-Kissinger team towards communist China. (I wonder how the US would have managed in a world where the worlds most powerful economies were hostile).
2. The mindless foreign policy of the Bush administration has successfully alienated the US from most of the civilized world and has left the current administration with almost no alternative than try and repair the eroded trust (which ultimately may be a good thing: nothing wrong with consistently positive foreign policy for a change).
3. Siemens (from Germany) is developing nuclear cooperation with Russia, Areva (from France) with China, Iran is sending a satellite in space with Russian help and Russo-Chinese and Russo-Indian military cooperation (not without their own problems) is developing. It looks like Joe Biden is on his way to start repairing the damage done by the Bush administration in alienating the Europeans. The alternative will be an undesirable anti-American Euro-Russo alliance (or even worse Euro-Russo-Chinese or Indian alliance. Unlikely because of the the importance of the US for these countries that will neutralize their interest in anti US arrangements. Possible US protectionism though could make that option more viable.
That's why I think Afghanistan is the smallest American foreign policy problem. I regret to be cynical but who cares about that illiterate mountain people and a bunch of smelly Taliban with flea infested beards. No one! Just cut of their sources of international currency and they will literally have no money to travel abroad to cause trouble. (If you really care about the Afghan people think about how to offer them better livelihood than growing poppies for the Taliban instead of how to send more troops that might be cheaper and more effective).
So I suggest:
1. Get Russia into the WTO, NATO and the EU which will lead to better transparency and trust. Keeping them out gives the government the excuse to brake international norms.
2. Get the Russian army into Afghanistan (if they are to share the fruits of democracy they should share the responsibilities too).
3. Increase academic exchange between the two countries for two reasons:
a) that may actually benefit the US in the flow of technology and b) that will increase understanding and good will between the two countries and make it more difficult for the ruling elites to resort to war mongering and scare tactics.
c)send government funded consultants to help improve Russian economy (no one want's to fight on a full belly:)
Russia has been steadily antagonised by withholding their WTO membership for no valid reasons, promoting NATO expansion while Russia is not invited they have no choice but regard NATO as a hostile organisation, prod neighbours like Georgia to physically attack Russian soldiers. Not the best trust building policies. But what should be done?
I think the best approach will be to hug the bear so hard it will find it hard not to respond. Let me explain:
1. That's the approach the US used successfully in post-war Germany and Japan, that was the approach used successfully by the brilliant Nixon-Kissinger team towards communist China. (I wonder how the US would have managed in a world where the worlds most powerful economies were hostile).
2. The mindless foreign policy of the Bush administration has successfully alienated the US from most of the civilized world and has left the current administration with almost no alternative than try and repair the eroded trust (which ultimately may be a good thing: nothing wrong with consistently positive foreign policy for a change).
3. Siemens (from Germany) is developing nuclear cooperation with Russia, Areva (from France) with China, Iran is sending a satellite in space with Russian help and Russo-Chinese and Russo-Indian military cooperation (not without their own problems) is developing. It looks like Joe Biden is on his way to start repairing the damage done by the Bush administration in alienating the Europeans. The alternative will be an undesirable anti-American Euro-Russo alliance (or even worse Euro-Russo-Chinese or Indian alliance. Unlikely because of the the importance of the US for these countries that will neutralize their interest in anti US arrangements. Possible US protectionism though could make that option more viable.
That's why I think Afghanistan is the smallest American foreign policy problem. I regret to be cynical but who cares about that illiterate mountain people and a bunch of smelly Taliban with flea infested beards. No one! Just cut of their sources of international currency and they will literally have no money to travel abroad to cause trouble. (If you really care about the Afghan people think about how to offer them better livelihood than growing poppies for the Taliban instead of how to send more troops that might be cheaper and more effective).
So I suggest:
1. Get Russia into the WTO, NATO and the EU which will lead to better transparency and trust. Keeping them out gives the government the excuse to brake international norms.
2. Get the Russian army into Afghanistan (if they are to share the fruits of democracy they should share the responsibilities too).
3. Increase academic exchange between the two countries for two reasons:
a) that may actually benefit the US in the flow of technology and b) that will increase understanding and good will between the two countries and make it more difficult for the ruling elites to resort to war mongering and scare tactics.
c)send government funded consultants to help improve Russian economy (no one want's to fight on a full belly:)
Saturday, February 07, 2009
If I Was God
If I was God I will create a world as beautiful and fascinating as it can possibly be.
If I was God I will create beings in my image and will set them free.
There is no other way if they are created in Gods image.
Even if I know that they are not perfect I will not interfere.
I’ll let them make there own decisions no matter how disastrous they may be because that the only way that they can learn to be real children of God: by taking responsibility.
I will be tempted to offer rewards for good behavior and punishment for bad but I will refrain from doing that because it will limit their freedom of choice and without freedom they cannot be beings made in the image of God.
I will be tempted to prevent them from doing something so stupid that it may end the existence of their kind but I wouldn’t because that will limit their freedom and I created them in my image so their freedom is without limit. I will be sad and weep when they destroy each other but I won’t interfere because I love them.
If I was God I will love all people equally because I would have created them all!
If I was God I will create beings in my image and will set them free.
There is no other way if they are created in Gods image.
Even if I know that they are not perfect I will not interfere.
I’ll let them make there own decisions no matter how disastrous they may be because that the only way that they can learn to be real children of God: by taking responsibility.
I will be tempted to offer rewards for good behavior and punishment for bad but I will refrain from doing that because it will limit their freedom of choice and without freedom they cannot be beings made in the image of God.
I will be tempted to prevent them from doing something so stupid that it may end the existence of their kind but I wouldn’t because that will limit their freedom and I created them in my image so their freedom is without limit. I will be sad and weep when they destroy each other but I won’t interfere because I love them.
If I was God I will love all people equally because I would have created them all!
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