North Korea - What Now?

What will happen in North Korea?

The regime seems far less stable than the Arab dictatorships or even the USSR by the end of the 80s.
For there is no doubt that North Korean regime will collapse most probably sooner than later and in any case not later than the end of this decade if not in the first half of it.
The problem is how the world or the major interests involved will deal with it. If there are any particular plans they don't seem to be public if they exist at all so I will feel free to speculate.
Questions to be answered:

First, what could happen?
Second, who are the major players and what are their interests?
Third, what can they do to promote them or what can be expected that they may do?

Possible answers to the first question – possible developments :

1. Russian scenario. A Gorbachev style move towards reforms starts well but ends in Yeltsin type chaos of crime and corruption until the Putin type strongman regulates corruption in favor of his clique and puts the losers in jail
2. Chinese scenario. Deng Xiaoping style reforms lead to improved living standards while preserving the rule of the communist party and postponing the inevitable collapse.
3. East German scenario. South Korea absorbs North Korea and the North Korean communist elite melts into obscurity.

Additional questions stemming from the proposed answers to the first question:

• Which is the preferred scenario?
• Which is the most probable one?
• Which is the most dangerous?

Answer to the second question – major stakeholders :

1. The people of North Korea – interested in survival, development, democracy and opportunities
2. The communist elite of North Korea – interested in preserving their privileges
3. South Korea – interest in dealing with the military threat from the North and reunification.
4. China – interested in stability in Korea to prevent destabilization of its regions bordering Korea.
5. Japan – interested in removing the threat from North Korea and a host of problems.
6. USA – a peaceful Korea will reduce the need for US military presence but open opportunities for trade.
7. Russia – has shown remarkable indifference for a country so close and the importance accorded by the government to the development of the Russian Pacific region so close to North Korea.

So far all stakeholders (with the notable exception of the sovereign – the people of North Korea) have pledged to work with the elite in North Korea to facilitate a smooth transition. Russia has warned against “provocations” by North Korean neighbors probably meaning that the Russian government won't tolerate a repeat of the Libyan scenario.
That may be the most sensible foreign policy in response to the contingency of the moment but what should the main stakeholders do to secure the promotion of there strategic interests in the future?
And what those interest may be? (I am aware that the concise list provided here is far from complete and may be even off the mark.)

You Cannot Love If You Don't Know

If you want to give
you have to have.
If you want to live
you have to love.

You can only have
what you understand,
not what is in your hand,
and you cannot know it if you don't love.

Russian Spring and US National Interest

One night the Khalif Harum al Rashid summoned his vizier Jafar and said to him: “I wish to go into the city to find out what is happening and to question the people about the conduct of my administrators so that I may dismiss those who they complain of and promote those they praise...”
from the Tale of Three Apples not Newton's, Beatles' and Steve Jobs' but the one from The Thousand and One Nights

The Khalif in Moscow seems to have forgotten that he has to check what people think of his administrators and confident in his popularity after ruling uncontested for over 12 years was unpleasantly surprised by his party's loss of more than 20 per cent of their seats in the Russian parliament regardless of the intimidation of his opponents and his control over the media (perhaps that was caused in part by the 20 per cent increase of internet penetration among the highly literate Russian population). Even worse he seems failing to acknowledge that the people have genuine concerns and dismisses the protesters in true Leninist style as paid by the West. To top it up US Secretary of State Hilary Clinton expressed her concern with the rigged elections, prompting Mr Putin to retaliate that she was instigating the protests which is hardly try. Try spending several hours outside in the Russian winter. No matter how big a fan of Mrs Clinton you may be that thought won't be enough to keep you warm. Just how shaky Putin's position is at the moment can be discerned by his nervousness and lack of confidence (this is the man who rides his horse half-naked even when Sarah Palin is not watching from Alaska) but making the allusion that the white ribbons used by the protesters look like condoms is pretty low (and exposes ignorance that condoms may come in different colors). Gorbachev too (hardly a political competitor anymore) incurred the wrath of Putin by calling for a rerun of the elections.
Having said all that most of the protesters have spent most of their creative lives under the relatively secure, stable and prosperous rule of Putin and his political allies especially if compared with the chaotic Yeltsin regime. Those are the less flamboyant KGB guys (the more extravagant ones are in London dazzling the UK public with extreme wealth obtain though unthinkable corruption) and they may continue to rule Russia for quite some time with or without Putin mostly because they are unlikely to give up their positions without a fight. On the other hand the protestors are not the workers, soldiers and sailors of the October Revolution from the previous century. They are mostly middle class people who are looking for a government that can provide for more opportunities for development and innovation besides selling oil and gas to the West and China.
And that is where the interests of the people standing in the cold in Russia coincide with US national interest. A more democratic Russia where innovation and development will create more markets for US products and more products for US markets can only benefit the US middle class.
In that line of thought it was lucky timing that Russia was accepted as a member of the WTO just when it needs a boost. US – Russia relations cannot be fully covered by the philosophy of a “reset”. They need much more creative thinking to build a whole new system of interdependence and cooperation that will not only boost domestic economies but help create the conditions for stability and prosperity across Eurasia where pockets of volatile conflicts and regional animosities threaten to blow out of proportions, not to mention the imminent collapse of Chinese communism with yet unknown and unpredictable consequences.
The most precious legacy of the G.W. Bush era is the expensive lesson that the US cannot and should not act alone attempting to resolve international issues no matter how well-intentioned and powerful it may feel. It is debilitatingly expensive and the results are at best inconclusive if not disastrous.
The cheapest and most effective way to promote US national interest globally (and in space) is through cooperation – Marshal Plan style, or Kissinger's policy towards China style or International Space Station style. That is not confined to US international experience. Post WWII French policy to entangle Germany in an EU, (I remember it was originally an US idea) but it only became successful after France started pursuing it with religious fervor, and has managed to forge fascinating unity on the Old Continent torn by the most devastating wars in human history less than a century ago, and that united continent is one of the most reliable US trade partners and military allies.
Russia has moved a long way since the stagnation of the Brezhnev era. It is not perfect but it is moving slowly forward. It's in our interest to support that movement.

… the great thing in this world is not so much where we stand as in what direction we are moving: To reach the port of heaven, we must sail sometimes with the wind and sometimes against it— but we must sail, and not drift, nor lie at anchor...
--- Oliver Wendell Holmes, Sr.

Desires and Values

In our quest for happiness conjuring plans and putting them into action to fulfill our goals to satisfy our desires we acquire knowledge that can be shared with others for the mutual benefit of reaching our goals easier and cheaper. Thus knowledge is any information that can be used for the creation of a workable way to pursue our interests. Distilling our interest from the fountain of desires bursting from the spring of life fueled by love and beauty builds the structure of the tower of wisdom. That tower will be shinier and taller if it is built on sincerity and honesty or else deception can easily lead to misunderstanding that will cause it to crumble. Because of its complexity the search of happiness is only partially achievable by reason alone. It needs the passion of divine faith to serve as guiding light in the darkness of uncertainty. Desires may be born in the quest for earthly pleasures but that is only a refection of their heavenly source and destination. To deny the moving force of desires is to deny life itself. If they are there they must serve a purpose. It might be divine if you believe in God or you can consider it natural if you believe in Nature but they have the power of an ocean wave that can drown you or give lift you high and take you far in an exhilarating ride if you have mastered the skill to use it.

Sincerity and faith will make communication with like-minded souls possible. You may be able to achieve faster and more impressive results through lies but those results are likely to be short-lived and will most certainly cause more harm than good in the long run. Also depriving others of your honest oppinion on your interests and the best ways to achieve them deprives the community of valuable input which may be decisive for success or failure based on the advantage gained by deliberation.

Desires lead to values through the process of defining first interests, then goals by tempering them in the furnaces of reason, faith and passion. True wisdom will not come only through reason or, faith or passion alone or by merely absorbing knowledge useful to others. It can only blossom from a constant personal quest to understand what I really want, who I really am, why do I love myself and how will that help me become a better (happier) person with the help of others and how can I help them do that.

What You See Is What You Get

What you see is what you get in live. If you know more you will get it easier. Understanding how the world works is critical to achieve ones goals easier. That knowledge comes from reflection on personal and others' experience. By reflection I mean both creating assumptions on cause and effect relationships and analyzing the result of testing these assumptions in real life. Personal experience is the most expensive but most reliable method of testing these assumptions and it relates them to our personal goals, interests or desires more closely than others. An experiment or in other words an artificial model of reality to test our theories is cheaper than real life experience but can be inaccurate or misleading due to the necessary simplification of that reality. The danger of self deception is even greater when applied to complex phenomena like society, business and especially politics.

But if personal experience leads to better knowledge wouldn't that also mean that personal theories of happiness, ethics, economics and politics are better than general ones. And indeed that is the logical conclusion. General theories are always weaker and less informative than personal ones. That doesn't meant that the are unnecessary – we need them to establish understanding between us so we can get other to help us achieve our goals which would be difficult (if not impossible unless one resorts to coercion) if we don't have a shared system of values, meanings and beliefs on the projected results of certain actions. Coercion is bad not because of some obscure commandment but because it can only achieve short lived results deceptively easy. The results will be short lived and the whole coercive enterprise a waste of resources because anything that does not develop is bound to die out. The only way to improve the results from coercion is by more coercion thus inevitably causing more resistance until the balance tips over against the perpetrator of coercive practices. It's a futile exercise and that makes it bad policy to pursue.

Scapegoat

Who is to blame for the mess we are in?

The politicians?

Big business?

Both?

Or its all our own fault?

Mad is not the man who eats two cabbage pies,

but mad is the one who gives them to the man.

Bulgarian wisdom (don't count on it's relevance, but ignore it on your own risk)

The Tea (for lack of beer) Party will blame big government and unaccountability and they are to a great extent right. The OWS will blame big business and they too have a point. But it is like blaming the GPS if you don't know where you want to go. If your goal is clear then the deficiencies of the instruments to get you there would be more obvious. The main problem with government is not lack of efficiency but lack of effectiveness. It's no use to blame someone for wastefulness if you don't know the final goal. You cannot allocate resources if you don't have priorities, you cannot find the way if you don't know the destination. Once you know that you are looking for the Wizard of Oz the Yellow Brick Road becomes visible clearer than before.

Less regulation may seem like more freedom to its advocates by they should remember that free markets are impossible without a government guaranteeing private property and the critics of capitalism while right about the negative consequences from breathtaking inequality should keep in mind that when private property is compromised even worse inequality (Chinese, Cuban or North Korean style) emerges inevitably. The above are simple laws of how society works. By simple I do not imply insignificant but basic and solid to the extent that further attempt to disprove them will be rightfully considered waste of time. I will restate them:

1. There is no democracy without free markets.

2. There is no free market economy without democracy.

3. There is no freedom without both of the above being in place.

But if the goal setting is the most important part of the politico/economic process how do we go about setting them?

Here the answer cannot be simple because the goals must incorporate the interests of each and every citizen. Market and Politics work differently. When buying or selling it is the customer peculiar preferences that come to the surface. In a democracy on the other hand it is the same peculiar, individual, pesonal interests that are most important but they are negotiated in a manner appealing to some common, overarching interest. That has let some to believe that this commont interest is above personal interest and that is the worst political error with the gravest consequences as has been proven by the actions of Stalin, Hitler and Pol Pot among others. Private, individual interest always has the priority and only by protecting and respecting it is possible to formulate and protect a common course of action that wouldn't turn against those who it is supposed to benefit.

Therefore it is not politicians and big business who are to blame. It's me and you – equally. Perhaps to a certain extent it's more my fault than yours. Think about it. Tell me what you think.

Who needs ideas?

All theories are just assumptions of cause and effect relationships that seem plausible and provide reasonably useful prediction for how things might work so we can plan accordingly. It is prudent to be always aware that even the most trustworthy theory might prove inapplicable in a particular situation which demands an innovative approach.

We act we act on our beliefs . We act on what we believe is our best interest and we do what we believe is the best way to achieve it. A prudent person will make every effort to gather all available relevant information and evaluate its reliability as objectively as possible. But ultimately people will be driven by their passions and desires and will act on what they believe is genuine knowledge about how things work. The strength of our beliefs and factored by the relevance of our knowledge will make our actions a part of reality. What is more important it will have more significant effect on that part of reality the is closest to us and affects us the most. Therefore faith is a substantial part of reality and the most important force and tool to achieve our goals. We live because we believe. Or more correctly - the way we live is a reflection of our beliefs.

Philosophy – a journey to the other world

(a quest for wisdom, love and freedom)

This world is the world we know and understand. The other world is the world of the unknown. Philosophy is the name of the ship that can take us on a voyage of exploration of that world. The controls of this ship are easy to master because the only indispensable qualification is love for wisdom. Easy as it seems it must be handled with care like any tool that can harm you or those around you if it is not applied with care and forethought especially its sharp edge called doubt. This ship will use faith as the wind that will propel it on its way and dreams to serve as stars to guide it towards the its goal.

Faith that if you work hard all your emotional, intellectual, political and economic needs will be fulfilled and the best way to do that is if you think deep, love with abandon, work hard and sincerely believe.

Democracy is the way to fully appreciate the individual thus setting them on their path to develop their full potential for a their own and consequently everyone's benefit. Though it is the most natural way for organising a society it doesn't come naturally. Humanity's inherent complexity demands the ultimate intellectual, emotional and spiritual effort to make society work. The problems often seem insurmountable but the alternative is “nasty, brutish” and deadly. Power comes from working together chasing personal happiness.

Questions on Greece, Strauss-Kahn, Libya and ignorance

Is there anything common between the demonstrations in Greece, Libya and Syria?

Wouldn't it be good for Greece to go bankrupt as Island did? Island seems to be OK now.

Why wouldn't the US default on its debt? Again there is nothing wrong with Iceland.

Why in the case of Greece the world community represented by the IMF appears to be aganist the people while in Libya the UN Security Council and NATO appear to protect the people?

It looks like former IMF Dominique Strauss-Kahn and his accuser both demonstrated poor judgemnt. He ruined his career and she her lucrative money laundering side business. So they were both in finance and both not very clever. No wonder the financial system is plagued by crises.

Why do things go wrong?
Everything of course can be blamed on world imperialism, illuminati conspirators or the Satan himself, but the more plausible explanation will be that it is human stupidity that causes all the suffering. It is a ignorati conspiracy and the only way out is if we the reasonable stop being complacent.

The IMF and NATO offer a knee jerk reaction to serious problems. The debt is not the problem in Greece it is the symptom of inadequate development but neither the IMF nor the EU seem to be concerned with treating the causes. In Libya the lack of democracy is the problem but there is not thought about post Gaddafi reconstruction. The naïve expectation that things will just work out may backfire the way things turned out in Somalia, Kosovo, Afghanistan and Iraq.

It is our world and if we don't take care of it it will come crashing on our heads. It is not someone else's fault and someone else's failure. It is my failure too but mostly your failure. Think about it and write a passionate comment.

Is God always Happy?

Why not? All powerful, immortal, all knowing it looks like God should be happy at all times. If you imagine God as a content Buddha – free of desires or a like Jesus ascending to Heaven that may be so but I doubt it. Yes, I too can see the serene beauty of a stone or of vapour rising to the clouds but is that happiness? Rocks are peaceful lacking desires, but the do not have souls either. While God of the Bible seems to have doubts even about creation. Remember God creates something and then sees that it is good. Then God creates humanity – the pinnacle of creation in God's own image but is so often disappointed. But that is not my problem.

My problems is that I don't seem to be happy all the time either. I know there are those of you who will say that happiness is actually the pursuit of happiness or else something that you cannot achieve on this world but I will disagree. There are moments on this world when I feel definitely happy and the pursuit of happiness even if it can be breathtakingly inspiring at times there are moments when it suicidally frustrating. But if it is in my nature to suffer from unsatisfied desires pulling my soul in different directions with no apparent meaning to it all and then again if we are created in God's image then what will be the strength of happiness and of frustration that God feels?

And whose responsibility is all this? (I will suppress the intuitive reaction to blame the government.)

There were times when people believed that if prayers to God do not provide quick solutions perhaps a contract with the devil will do. But that seems like an illusion too. If I was the devil I wouldn't be very interested in providing services in exchange for a corrupt soul too anxious to prostitute itself. That's damaged goods.

With no apparent help from above or below it seems that happiness is my responsibility alone. And if desires seem to contradict each other it's up to me to mould them into a coherent and satisfactory vision. But even then the path remains elusive.

It's easy in the Wizard of Oz – just follow the Yellow Brick Road and the dreams that you dare to dream will come true. In real life the roads of faith, enterprise, politics or thinking seem to lead into different directions. Faith seems like the best (and deceivingly easiest) choice but believing without acting can easily degenerate into hypocrisy because how can I be know by what I do if I do nothing. Politics then seem a good approach as I can harness the power of the many like minded people to pursue our goals together, but that may mean adjusting my goals to fit the common interest. Then thinking may be a good way to achieve what I want but reason also can painfully illuminate the impossibility of my dearest desires. Perhaps a combination of thinking based on faith can help me build a political consensus to support an enterprise that can materialise my dreams?

Tell me what you think?

In God's Image

If we the people are created in God's image then we must have God's perfection, sovereignty, power and knowledge. Unfortunately we don't. Most people are far from perfect, easily oppressed or enslaved and often helpless. Our knowledge is frequently inadequate and ignorance causes most of humanity's troubles.

Should we then discard the notion that we were created in God's image as wishful dreaming, an unsubstantiated prejudice by an self-conceited primate that imagines itself at the top of the evolutionary ladder or food chain even if there are others who are bigger, faster, more elegant and, who knows, perhaps even smarter. The answer is: No!

Because humanity has demonstrated capability for greatness even through periods when hate, ignorance and barbarity which sometimes threatened the extermination not only of humankind but all live on Earth.

We the people have shown that we have the power to change things the way we want them if we act together. Although a group of people can act to oppress another group of people and extract short term advantage that never works for longer periods. Therefore it is in the strategic interest of everybody to act together in the name of high ideas and protect our lives, freedom and the right to pursue opportunities.

People can be coerced into submission through threats and violence and such an contraption may even achieve certain illusionary success. The truth is that sooner or later it will collapse under the weight of lack of understanding and failure to accommodate the interests of all participants like a Tower of Babel – a grand vision but lacking substance.

The answer is in personal sovereignty. If everyone is created in God's own image then the opinion of everyone matters. On the other hand only cooperation can make that personal sovereignty, safety, freedom and opportunity possible. Coming from the premise that you can only love what you know. And the person you can know best is the one closest to you – yourself. And only if you love yourself a lot you can love your neighbor a lot too (you cannot possibly love your neighbor more because it is impossible to know someone else better than yourself). Everything else comes after that including the love of God.

To sum it up: people are unique and the best judges of their own interests. On the other hand these interests can only be protected and pursued in cooperation. Politics is the mechanism of this cooperation.

Alah Akbar

A scared middle aged Yemeni man running towards the camera repeatedly yelling Allahu Akbar his voice trembling is the picture that will remain etched in my memory from the recent pro-democracy protests in the Arab world. The fact that the man is obviously afraid and horrible things might be happening behind his back causing him to flee in terror he still is there – on the square, taking a stand, proclaiming God’s greatness. God doesn't need our assurances but we do. We shout God is Great in the secret hope that as we are created in God’s image we must be great too. And perhaps if not great we can expect great things to happen, and attempt to make these great things happen. That doesn't mean ignorant and naïve actions like burning the Koran or even worse slaughtering innocent UN employees. A Great God cannot ask for murder or burning of a book of wisdom. God is there where there is understanding. We can understand each other because we have something in common, common ancestors (as claimed in the Bible and proven by scientists), a human soul, a common Creator or Nature if you prefer that. The name doesn't matter as long as it is clear that it is the same concept regardless of how the name sounds in different languages and world-views. There is something bigger than us and yet we are in the center of events. We should except great things but they will only happen if we attempt great things, no matter how scary. Because God is Great and we are created in God’s image.

Please, sign the petition to free Eman Al-Obeidy in Libya!

Why Politics

Happiness
Happiness is what people are after. It has two prerequisites; life (for obvious reasons) and liberty (somewhat more obscure but based on the premise that people can only pursue happiness when they are free to decide what it is and how to pursue it). To achieve happiness people make plans complete with goals, priorities, steps and dedicate resources.

Politics
Politics is about people acting together to achieve their goals easier.
Politics is the highest level of organising this cooperative action the other cheaper and often more effective methods being business and community organisations.
Politics comes where the other cheaper and more effective methods do not work.
The measure of success in politics is where the interests of the people are effectively formulated and pursued.
As government gives certain advantages to those able to exploit its inability to protect itself from corruption. Successful governments have effective mechanisms in place to prevent such exploitation. Those who do not succumb to corruption to the detriment of their citizens and ultimately to the elite too.

Relations
Most relations among people and notably the most important ones related to love, friendship and pooling resources to archive prosperity are managed without the interference of the state. The state only steps in if something goes wrong. The state defines, adjudicates and enforces rules to increase the chances that such intervention does not cause harm and helps improve the situation by providing a reasonably lasting solution. Historical experience has demonstrated that rules are best established through deliberation and that these rules have to protect the rights of every member of society in order to be stable and defensible. Thus the need for liberty which is based on the protection of rights.

When Borders Are Crossed
Most relations which do not fall under the jurisdiction of a sole government are managed between people without the interference of a government they are mostly successfully managed privately by individuals themselves or facilitated by non-government entities like travel agents, international trading companies, banks, NGOs, Churches and other religious entities as with relations within a state perhaps with the advent of new technology the role of these intermediaries will gradually decrease. When these methods fail the government needs to intervene following interests and rules.

Foreign Policy
Foreign policy is about the state policies to promote the interests of its citizens abroad. But how does the state find out what these interests are if foreign policy is not an election priority if compared to the economy and other issues.